MRNA · Nasdaq · Financial statements
Moderna, Inc.: cash-flow calculator
A discounted cash flow model turns assumptions about future free cash flow into a single amount today. Here the assumptions are yours: the page shows what they add up to, and, the other way round, what yearly growth a share price takes for granted.
- Free cash flow
- -$2.1B
- FY 2025
- 5-year average
- $1.6B
- FY 2021–2025
- Net debt
- -$2.0B
- FY 2025
- Diluted shares
- 389.0M
- FY 2025
A cash-flow model does not fit these figures well
- Free cash flow was negative in 2025. Growing a negative number gives a negative value, so the latest year is no base for this model.
You can still enter your own starting free cash flow below, for example what you expect once heavy investment ends. That is your assumption, not a figure from the reports.
Your assumptions
money in USDGrowth usually slows as a company gets bigger.
For ever, so it is usually kept at or below long-run growth of the economy, often 0–3%.
The yearly return you require: a risk-free rate plus a premium for risk. Higher means later cash counts for less.
From the FY 2025 balance sheet. Negative means more cash than debt.
Weighted average, diluted, FY 2025.
EdgeScore has no licensed price feed for US shares yet. Type the current share price yourself.
Present value per share, with your assumptions
75.22 USD
Starting from 1.59B USD of free cash flow, growing 5.0% a year for five years, 3.0% for the next five and 2.0% after that, all discounted at 9.0%.
- Years 1–10, discounted
- 12.73B
- After year 10, discounted
- 14.52B
- Minus net debt
- 2.01B
- For shareholders
- 29.26B
- Divided by shares
- 389.0M
What the price implies
Enter a share price to see the growth it implies.
- Your assumption, years 1–55.0%
- Revenue, FY 2020–202519.3%
- Revenue, FY 2022–2025-53.4%
Sensitivity: value per share
Rows: terminal growth. Columns: discount rate. Other assumptions as entered, values in USD.
| g \ r | 7% | 8% | 9% | 10% | 11% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.0% | 93.08 | 80.01 | 70.23 | 62.65 | 56.60 |
| 1.5% | 98.08 | 83.34 | 72.56 | 64.33 | 57.84 |
| 2.0% | 104.07 | 87.23 | 75.22 | 66.22 | 59.23 |
| 2.5% | 111.40 | 91.83 | 78.28 | 68.36 | 60.78 |
| 3.0% | 120.57 | 97.34 | 81.86 | 70.81 | 62.52 |
“—”: terminal growth at or above the discount rate has no finite answer.
Year by year
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Discounted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5.0% | 1.67B | 0.917 | 1.54B |
| 2 | 5.0% | 1.76B | 0.842 | 1.48B |
| 3 | 5.0% | 1.85B | 0.772 | 1.43B |
| 4 | 5.0% | 1.94B | 0.708 | 1.37B |
| 5 | 5.0% | 2.03B | 0.650 | 1.32B |
| 6 | 3.0% | 2.10B | 0.596 | 1.25B |
| 7 | 3.0% | 2.16B | 0.547 | 1.18B |
| 8 | 3.0% | 2.22B | 0.502 | 1.12B |
| 9 | 3.0% | 2.29B | 0.460 | 1.05B |
| 10 | 3.0% | 2.36B | 0.422 | 996.5M |
| After 10 | 2.0% | 34.37B | 0.422 | 14.52B |
Terminal value = free cash flow in year 10 × (1 + terminal growth) ÷ (discount rate − terminal growth). Amounts in millions of USD.
Where the starting figures come from
Operating cash flow and free cash flow
| FY | Revenue | Op. cash flow | Capex | Free cash flow |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $1.9B | -$1.9B | $192M | -$2.1B |
| 2024 | $3.2B | -$3.0B | $1.1B | -$4.1B |
| 2023 | $6.8B | -$3.1B | $707M | -$3.8B |
| 2022 | $19.3B | $5.0B | $400M | $4.6B |
| 2021 | $18.5B | $13.6B | $284M | $13.3B |
| 2020 | $803M | $2.0B | $68.0M | $2.0B |
| 2019 | $60.2M | -$459M | $32.0M | -$491M |
| 2018 | $135M | -$331M | $106M | -$437M |
| 2017 | $206M | -$331M | $58.4M | -$390M |
Free cash flow = operating cash flow − capital expenditure. Source: SEC EDGAR, annual reports.
How it works: free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capital expenditure) grows at your stage 1 rate for years 1–5 and your stage 2 rate for years 6–10; after that, a terminal value assumes your terminal growth for ever. Each year is discounted at your rate, net debt (financial debt minus cash, latest balance sheet) is subtracted and the total is divided by diluted shares. The reverse calculation finds, by bisection, the stage 1 growth at which this equals the share price. Operating cash flow is after interest, so subtracting net debt as well is a simplification you can switch off.
The output is arithmetic on your inputs. It is not an EdgeScore estimate of what the shares are worth and not a price target. Figures: SEC EDGAR, annual reports, with the fiscal year shown next to each one.
For information and education only, not investment advice. Data may contain errors.